AI时代的就业真相
发布时间：2026-04-20 来源：计上心头网作者：数据统计中心
- \u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(241, 241, 241); box-sizing: border-box !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: -5px 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; transform: scale(0.86); transform-origin: center center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: transparent; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: transparent\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e在传统制造业、互联网、科技企业的财报中，AI正成为支撑增长不可或缺的叙事。商业新故事背后，打工人的怅然却无处遁形。新技术革命席卷过后，AI会接管人类哪些岗位，又会催生哪些新职业？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 13px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e文｜《财经》记者 邹碧颖\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 24px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 13px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e编辑｜王延春\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_0--\u003e新技术降临时，往往裹挟着兴奋、迷惘、恐惧、新生。蒸汽、电力和计算机乍然出现的那些年份，人们很难断定，故事的结局将如何书写。一如眼前令人兴致勃勃又疑惑不安的AI。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e3月，海南博鳌年会，中国工程院院士张亚勤在一场演讲中，宣告了“\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003e智能体AI元年\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e”的到来——就在2026年。埃隆·马斯克对AI的演进速度更是激进地乐观。“今年，最迟明年，我们就能拥有比任何人类都更聪明的人工智能。” 1月的瑞士达沃斯论坛上，他宣称。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e很难说AI不会是一种全新的、具有意识的存在。哲学命题，留待科学家们辨析。大部分打工人无暇顾及形而上的争论，因为近在咫尺的切肤转变正在发生。2026年春节假期后，杨千返回北京的一家互联网公司工作，很快接到公司准备裁掉三分之二研发人员的通知。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e产品经理杨千起初是惊讶；接着，消息很快划过脑子，应该是一次普通的“降本增效”口号吧。一个月后，残酷的方案浮出水面。程序员一个一个离开，工位空了大片，从前吵吵闹闹的办公室，现在安静得可怕。被裁的不只是初级程序员，一位拥有八年工作经验的技术“牛人”，也上了裁员名单。而取代他的，是一位会用AI智能代码编辑器\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_1--\u003eCursor\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_1--\u003e的应届生。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e公司的理由顺理成章。杨千明白，应届生会用AI工具、听话、能加班，每月薪资8000元到1万元，足以顶上一位老员工80%的工作成果。老板在公司群里算了笔账：一位老员工，月薪3万元，三位应届生+AI，月薪2.4万元。有了AI，雇人成本大幅下降；不仅如此，一个需求，过去研发排期得等两周，现在三天能出原型，需求交付周期从两周压缩至三天。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e3月底，大公司密集发布年报。在传统制造业、互联网、科技企业的财报中，AI正成为支撑增长不可或缺的叙事。商业新故事背后，打工人的怅然却无处遁形，下一轮裁员会否轮到自己？潮起潮涌的时代也混杂着热切的目光，从Openclaw引发的养虾潮，到影视、游戏、电商各领域，琳琅满目的AI工具涌现，摩拳擦掌、跃跃欲试抢登AI大船的人不在少数。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e未来不在过去的延长线上。大国博弈或公司竞争，遵循一套适者生存的进化法则，而今，AI成为法则的一部分。新技术席卷，AI会接管人类哪些岗位，又会催生哪些新职业？2025年5月，Anthropic CEO（首席执行官） Dario Amodei接受Axios采访时说，\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e人工智能\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e可能在未来一年至五年内“消灭一半初级白领岗位”，将失业率推高至10%至20%。科技、金融、法律、咨询和其他白领职业，尤其是入门级工作，可能会大规模消失。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e今年3月，\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_1--\u003e高盛\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_1--\u003e的一篇文章预计，全球3亿个工作岗位面临AI威胁。20多岁到30多岁的入门级员工，尤其进入知识和内容创作领域的员工，最可能受到人工智能新应用的影响。“但这并非板上钉钉。”高盛研究部全球经济团队联席主管约瑟夫·布里格斯同时补充说。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e我们引以为豪的大学教育的某些部分正在失效。AI时代，如何就业？模糊的图景逐渐显现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 32px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 67, 135)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e再就业3个月又没工作了，“一岗多能”渐成标配\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e如果将就业市场比作一条河流，它不会突然断流，只会悄悄改道。最先发生变化的，是那些模板化的工作。客服、文案、基础财务、法律助理、设计、程序员、数据分析——这些岗位有一个共同点：流程清晰、规则明确、可以被拆解、重复。也因此，最容易受AI冲击。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e戴奈之前在一家互联网金融公司的运营岗位工作。2024年，公司裁员，连同他在内，运营、设计、产品、程序走了一批人。2023年，他才经历过一次裁员。新一次失业后，他不再向公司寻求工作机会，转头做起自由职业。除了网络博主，也经营些小型线上生意。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“后续也有很多人找到了工作，但工作不是特别稳定。”戴奈告诉《财经》，这两年，AI在工作中应用越来越广泛，周遭朋友的就业空间变得愈发狭窄。有人被裁后重新找到了工作，但到新公司半年之内又被裁员；紧接着去下一家，工作三个月，工作又没了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e戴奈干脆开始尝试自媒体，在小红书上运营一个叫“尼斯特戴”的账号。戴奈猜想，自己职场空窗两年，如今很难受到面试官和HR的青睐。不过，拥有互联网公司三年至五年的运营工作经验，基本可以兜住大部分的基础工作。总体来说，比设计、程序员还是容易不少。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e戴奈做设计的朋友，受AI冲击更为严重。AI出现前，电商公司的商品详情页长尾图和商品主图，已经有固定模板。人只负责简单色彩调整或结构优化。而今，这些工作交由AI完成。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e戴奈听说，一些公司裁掉设计岗位后，由运营人员向AI给出设计的提示词，要求AI产出什么规格、风格的图片，尺寸长宽是多少。过去，运营人员将需求传递给设计，中间经过邮件三四道沟通，现在，运营只需要求AI。在戴奈看来，跨部门沟通往往费劲，而向AI毫无顾忌地多次提出修改请求，AI也不会有任何怨言脾气，这减少了许多人际交往上的困扰。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e短短时间内，AI可以生成风格不同的100张图，人力相形见绌。设计师们的工作如今岌岌可危。如今，有的设计师也开始用AI工具，一半人工智能生产，另一半自己“手搓”。一些个体老板还不太了解AI，设计从业者还有为数不多的生存空间。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_1--\u003e“一岗多能”正在成为新的用工底线。高等教育的学历仍然重要，但不再足够；职场经验也在贬值——尤其那些基于旧工具的经验。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e阿亮是AI行业的创业者，2011年至2015年，他在互联网大厂做程序员，2016年追随别人创业，直到后来，个人的创业方向转向AI。他的公司为国内电商企业提供AI办公协作工具，也面向海外市场推出了图片文字转视频的网站与App，还有些AI翻译产品。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“AI现在完整地将一家电商公司的所有岗位替代是不现实的。但运用AI工具，比如在运营、数据监测方面，十个人的活儿可以一个人全干了。”阿亮坦言。他们公司的翻译AI产品面向翻译社，从2024年12月开始运营，不断优化迭代，如今可以翻译100多种语言。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e人工翻译直接替代掉，最后留一位审稿人做文字和格式复核即可。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e阿亮公司全职员工六人、兼职员工六七人，非常精干。这家公司的程序员全用公司配备的AI工具写代码。“不允许自己写代码，这就是我给大家唯一的要求，因为效率太低了。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e过去，阿亮或许需要雇佣从阿里巴巴出来的“大牛”程序员。而今，只要会用AI工具，只有三五年工作经验的程序员，也能写出好代码。全公司AI使用成本每月不过五六千元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“做技术的员工，同时可以去盯盯数据、做点运营。做视频剪辑的员工，我不希望他只是一个视频剪辑，我希望从头到尾，从编导到视频，一条龙全做完了。”最近一场公司会议上，阿亮向员工鼓劲说，“有AI之后你的能力放宽了，我希望未来每个人都是一名全能战士。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“你觉得哪项技能不行，我可以给你些工具。不会用，我可以教你怎么用。你说我写不了东西，那我们给配置很好的skill（技能）协助。没关系，你都可以去学。”应用AI工具后，这家公司一个月的产出成果可以赶上以前50人的劳动成果。过去，研发一款产品，需要半年，非常痛苦，把员工的精力都耗没了。如今只需一周，产品就从立项走到了最终发布。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e阿亮起初是技术出身，如今兼做技术、产品和运营。每个月，他的AI工具花销差不多2000元人民币，占据公司AI开销大头。“我效率拉满，每天同时干八、十来件事儿。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 32px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 67, 135)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_2--\u003e一人公司\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_2--\u003e崛起：初级岗位消失后，人的核心能力是什么？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e在阿亮看来，AI如今打掉了原本还不错的职业——程序员、设计师、数据分析师。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e切身的观察在数据上也有一定体现。根据美国人工智能公司Anthropic最近发布的报告，程序员高达近75%的任务已被AI覆盖。这份报告列出了最受AI冲击的前十大职业，程序员之后分别是：客服代表、数据录入员、医疗记录专员、市场研究与营销分析师等等。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e当一个人用AI可以完成一组团队的工作，大公司裁员与组织调整就已经箭在弦上。今年以来，Mata、亚马逊、甲骨文、Block、戴尔等国外大公司都传来了大规模裁员的消息。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e3月消息，美国公司Meta计划裁员约1.6万人，占员工总数的20%。这家公司预计到2028年投入6000亿美元用于数据中心建设，同时斥资至少数十亿美元进行多项收购。大公司对AI的投资正在成为驱动裁员的关键因素。他们的扩张方向正从人力转向算力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e相比国外公司，中国互联网公司的人力调整更加隐蔽。公开信息中，很少出现大公司因AI裁员的明确比例或数字，但大厂AI导向的资源再配置已经十分明显。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e3月中旬，“网易将用AI全面清退外包员工，4月1日先裁30%，5月1日全部清退”的说法在互联网上迅速扩散。尽管网易随后否认了这一消息，但确认“因项目调整及正常人员汰换”。戴奈告诉《财经》，最近确实听说网易装了AI工作流，“朋友说有些外包人员陆陆续续在走”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e更有一些耸人听闻的赛博设想：2026年3月底，GitHub上出现一个名叫“\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_3--\u003e同事.skill\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_3--\u003e”的项目：上传被优化的同事留下的飞书聊天记录、邮件、代码提交记录，AI会将他/她“蒸馏”成Skill——一个能以原同事的语气、思路、代码风格继续工作的数字角色。人离职，Skill继续。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e过去，被一家人尽知晓的大公司录取，意味着确定的收入、稳定的职场路径、体面的社会人身份。到AI时代，传统的就业模式与身份认知剧烈摆动。安全感，变得越来越脆弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e陆远舟不再信服传统的大学教育与就业路径。他是上海交通大学的一名大三学生，一道学习行政管理专业的同学，现在忙着找实习、找工作，或保研、考公。陆远舟从2022年底开始做自媒体，积累了30万粉丝，运营一个“钱眼”的小红书号。他开设了一家公司，一人打理运营。这家“一人公司”，一头连接大学生做自媒体，另一头为AI公司提供有偿内容运营服务。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e新型就业思路源于2025年4月，陆远舟到上海一家AI公司实习。彼时用AI，他一人可以运营14个小红书推广账号，半年将阅读量从400万提升至900多万。这家公司的AI产品类似\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_4--\u003eOpenClaw\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_4--\u003e，2025年已经可操控个人电脑，完成发邮件、做PPT等自主任务。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“你就只需要在AI浏览器里发布命令，AI就会自己进入小红书后台。把需要上传的图片和文字从电脑本地上传，发布就好了。”陆远舟说。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e2026年1月，他试着在网上招募培训更多大学生，加入公司自媒体运营矩阵。100人一个月最终实现900万流量。许多同学线下没有见过面，只在直播中见过他的脸。一人公司，能以一己之力撬动如此规模的人力资源，陆远舟认为，这或多或少能说明些什么。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e不过，大学生人来人往，陆远舟需要培训新人，时间成本很高，3月底，他停止了实习生招募。“我一个都不想带了。与其花巨大成本去教一个实习生，不如教AI。”陆远舟花半天投喂好知识库，调好提示词，点击鼠标，AI一分钟就能吐出十篇80分的结构化文案。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“过去，你靠一点天赋，能拿到一张实习门票。公司愿意花钱给你时间试错，让你把灵性变成能力，但现在这扇门被死死锁上了。你空有一身才华，却连上牌桌的机会都没了。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e这种洞察并非空穴来风，AI正在挤压职场新人“从干中学”的路径。岗位不是突然消失的，AI先是消灭了年轻人“通过初级岗位成长为专家”的路径。这才是更深层次的冲击。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e国务院发展研究中心社会和文化发展研究部部长卓贤向《财经》举例，传统的律所依赖大量初级律师进行文件审查、法律检索，现在AI可以在几秒钟内完成这些工作。连锁反应是，律所大幅减少初级律师招聘——“如果企业不再招聘初级员工，未来的高级专家从何而来？”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003eAI触发更大规模的岗位调整与削减，许多人开始对传统的就业途径放弃幻想。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e和戴奈一样，决定做自媒体的公司职员不在少数。戴奈更多琢磨如何用好AI：过去一些博主哼哧哼哧扛着长焦相机去拍摄精致图片、经营小红书，现在可以直接让AI生成精美的四宫格素材。抖音真人出镜的视频带货，也能直接用AI换自己的脸录制。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“如果我去找工作，AI会无限压缩我的生存空间，但对自由职业又是非常有利的。”戴奈想，目前大部分人还不太会熟练使用AI工具。个人如果有清晰的思考脉络，AI其实可以帮助完成许多从前不敢想或没有能力完成的事情。这绝对属于AI时代积极的工作信号。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e陆远舟想了想，如今用AI辅助做自媒体，人的核心能力反而是“生而为人”的能力——察觉情绪。“我能迅速判别某个信息值得讲述。你对大众的心理有洞察力，知道人们喜欢什么样的东西，对什么样的情绪有共鸣，这种辨别能力很重要。和人交互的能力也很重要。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e工作对人能力要求的转变，也会反向重塑教育。19世纪诞生的普鲁士教育体系是现代学校制度的源头之一，经由年级制、统一课程、标准化考试、课堂纪律等，系统生产可管理、可复制的人才，供给工业化社会的各个细分岗位。而今，人们用豆包、千问、元宝、Deepseek，随时调取各领域的知识包，记忆和考试能力显得不那么重要。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“你能够记住的古诗，肯定比不过AI；比拼对某个SOP（标准作业程序）的执行能力，也比不过AI。我们现在需要的是洞察力和突破规则的能力。”陆远舟对《财经》说，“你如果没有很多内涵，你只会被AI牵着走，分辨不出来哪个好、哪个坏，你就站不到主导的位置上。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 12px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e2026年4月6日，湖北武汉，“一人公司OPC×AI前沿实战嘉年华”在武汉光谷金控模态空间OPC创新社区举行。活动现场座无虚席，多位嘉宾就AI、IP、GEO等主题进行了分享与互动。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 32px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 67, 135)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e工资再难上涨，专家呼吁征\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_5--\u003e机器人税\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_5--\u003e、变革社保体系\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e尽管如此，AI的演进速度依然令人敬畏。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e陆远舟做过知识付费、卖课。他很快发现，AI不久就能获取那些知识，他转型做小红书运营。“AI产出的小红书文案，仍需要人纠正，但那只是现在，一年后它一定会变得更聪明。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“B端也不需要一个所谓的操盘手或内容创意官来生产内容。”眼下，陆远舟为一位客户运营小红书，每月拍摄20条视频，所有文案全由AI写就，轻松收获35万播放量。“当老板学会后，还要我操盘自媒体干嘛？我觉得这个生态位迟早是要完蛋的。”他忧心忡忡地说道。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e很长时间，白领岗位令人艳羡，而今，情况正在发生逆转。反而是体力劳动与蓝领岗位更能抵御AI冲击。高盛研究也指出，市场可能需要更多技术熟练工，例如建筑工人、工程师、电工和线路工人。仅在美国，到2030年需要新增约50万个就业岗位，才能满足因AI数据中心基础设施建设而不断增长的电力需求。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e陆远舟向《财经》分析，需要线下与人协作交流的工作，可能会好找。像家政清洁工、装修师傅、纹眉师、整形医生等蓝领工作、非标化的工作。每个人喜欢的装修风格不一样，每个人适合的眉形也不一样，这些需求非常个性化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e目前，对AI时代的就业前景，存在乐观、悲观两种分歧。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、伦敦政治经济学院教授克里斯托弗·皮萨里德斯接受《财经》采访时认为，历史证明，重大技术转型也会创造新的岗位。“当汽车被发明出来，司机们唯一要做的事情就是学会开车。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e英国经济学家凯恩斯曾在1930年预言，随着生产力的提升，到2030年的时候，人类每周只需工作15个小时。皮萨里德斯赞同这种观点，认为有一些西方国家的公司已经在这么做了，从西欧到北美。一周工作四天，是可行的。“我们可以更少工作，更好地享受生活。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e同时，也有部分观点担忧生产效率的提升，不一定让人们获得更丰厚的社会福利。譬如，卓贤警告，劳动者工资与生产率提升可能会脱钩，人类工资上涨，面临一定压力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e对美国就业市场的研究显示，自20世纪70年代以来劳动生产率与实际工资的脱钩一直在持续，AI的加速应用可能扩大这一裂痕。卓贤分析，传统社会，制造业等高生产率部门创造的超额价值会通过劳动力市场竞争或工会谈判、最低工资等，溢出到医疗、护理、文娱等生产率增长缓慢的部门，从而实现全社会工资水平普涨。但在AI时代，高效率部门不再需要更多岗位，无须通过不断涨薪来维持劳动力队伍，也就无法拉高全社会工资水平。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“当被AI替代的中等技能劳动者（如文员、翻译、初级代码员）流动到生产率提升较慢的服务业（如网约车、配送、基础护理），出现劳动者供给大于需求，低效率部门劳动者工资随高效率部门工资上升的机制被阻断。”卓贤举例，在某项任务中，当AI的部署成本下降到每小时5美元，那么原本只从事该单一任务工人的工资可能永远无法超过5美元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e经济学家呼吁，对社会保障体系进行前瞻性的改革。皮萨里德斯认为，企业和政府之间需要合作，在技术转型中对失业者提供更多社会保障支持。“世界上现有的实践中，我更倾向于北欧模式，比如瑞典、丹麦和挪威。它们有精心设计的再培训项目以及在培训时期提供的社会保障。我不推荐美国模式，只是把劳动者扔到市场就不管了。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e卓贤指出，AI时代，就业发生结构性重组，岗位减少、雇佣关系碎片化、工资增长停滞，这种变化会动摇现代社会保险体系赖以运转的三大基础——稳定就业、持续工资增长与可预测的人口结构。当越来越多劳动者从单位职工变为任务承接者，从稳定收入变为波动收入，社保体系将面临税基收缩与风险上升的双重压力。工作将不足以支撑原有的社保体系。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e他建议，考虑征收“机器人税”，这或能内化AI发展的社会成本（如失业），减缓过快的就业替代。可根据AI技术类型实行差别化税率，对辅助工人的外骨骼、增强现实眼镜等“劳动增强型”技术给予税收抵免；对单纯替代劳动的技术不予以税收优惠或适度征税。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e此外，采取“税费协同”的社保融资。卓贤指出，丹麦等国选择以一般税收为主要资金来源，日本在2019年将消费税率从8%提高至10%，并明确提高的消费税收入专款专用于养老、医疗和护理等社会保障支出。“税费协同”的社保融资方式能让AI创造的财富红利回流至社会保障网。一些研究机构还提出征收AI“超额利润税”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e卓贤还建议，国家对持有算力征收费用。若AI算力如一些研究所说会成为未来的货币，那么掌握AI基础设施即掌握了未来的铸币权。国家投资持有核心算力基础设施，在AI大规模商业化应用之后，AI产生的经济租金可以直接注入社会保障体系。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e教育也需要转变。卓贤提到，在基础教育和高等教育中，特定专业背景和技能的半衰期缩短，教育必须转向培养批判性思维和跨学科的系统整合能力。随着AI接管初级工作，必须设计新的毕业生见习激励机制。可考虑由财政资金补贴初入职场青年的工资或代缴社保。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e“大学教育很早就脱轨了，只不过AI时代来临后，它是彻底脱轨了。”阿亮2016年时曾经到一所大学向大一新生们演讲。看不清就业前景，学生们很焦虑，问他，“未来社会会怎么发展？我们应该学什么东西？”当时，他回答：未来是人工智能的时代，大家应该要学AI。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e彼时，AI概念尚未普及，科技界还在摸索计算机“深度学习”。阿亮在图像软件研发中意外发现，通过有意识地训练计算机，模糊的图像能够显著变得清晰。“当时我就觉得这个东西真是太好了，未来AI会越来越聪明。”现在，阿亮招人只看一点——愿意学习AI工具。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e技术从不提前通知谁被淘汰，它只悄然重写规则。蒸汽机普及前，人们依靠马车出行，但当火车出现，马车也随之消失。AI时代亦然：我们现在需要随时准备好，重新改写一直理所当然的工作方式与社会观念本身。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(178, 178, 178)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.034em\"\u003e（为保护采访对象，杨千、戴奈、陆远舟为化名；《财经》记者江玮对此文亦有贡献）\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"image-box\" style=\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_6--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 13px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e责编 | 陈湘\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 13px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.578px\"\u003e题图来源 | 视觉中国\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .2)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-BLUE-100: #10aeff;--weui-BLUE-120: #0c8bcc;--weui-BLUE-170: #04344d;--weui-BLUE-80: #3fbeff;--weui-BLUE-90: #28b6ff;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: 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#31905D;--weui-LINK-100: #7D90A9;--weui-LINK-120: #647387;--weui-LINK-170: #252A32;--weui-LINK-80: #97A6BA;--weui-LINK-90: #899AB1;--weui-LINKFINDER-100: #DEE9FF;--weui-MATERIAL-ATTACHMENTCOLUMN: rgba(32, 32, 32, .93);--weui-MATERIAL-NAVIGATIONBAR: rgba(18, 18, 18, .9);--weui-MATERIAL-REGULAR: rgba(37, 37, 37, .6);--weui-MATERIAL-THICK: rgba(34, 34, 34, .9);--weui-MATERIAL-THIN: rgba(95, 95, 95, .4);--weui-MATERIAL-TOOLBAR: rgba(35, 35, 35, .93);--weui-ORANGE-100: #C87D2F;--weui-ORANGE-120: #A06425;--weui-ORANGE-170: #3B250E;--weui-ORANGE-80: #D39758;--weui-ORANGE-90: #CD8943;--weui-ORANGE-BG-100: #BB6000;--weui-ORANGE-BG-110: #A85600;--weui-ORANGE-BG-130: #824300;--weui-ORANGE-BG-90: #C1701A;--weui-ORANGERED-100: #FF6146;--weui-OVERLAY: rgba(0, 0, 0, .8);--weui-OVERLAY-WHITE: rgba(242, 242, 242, .8);--weui-PURPLE-100: #8183FF;--weui-PURPLE-120: #6768CC;--weui-PURPLE-170: #26274C;--weui-PURPLE-80: #9A9BFF;--weui-PURPLE-90: #8D8FFF;--weui-PURPLE-BG-100: #6768CC;--weui-PURPLE-BG-110: #5C5DB7;--weui-PURPLE-BG-130: #48498F;--weui-PURPLE-BG-90: #7677D1;--weui-RED-100: #FA5151;--weui-RED-120: #C84040;--weui-RED-170: #4B1818;--weui-RED-80: #FB7373;--weui-RED-90: #FA6262;--weui-RED-BG-100: #CF5148;--weui-RED-BG-110: #BA4940;--weui-RED-BG-130: #913832;--weui-RED-BG-90: #D3625A;--weui-SECONDARY-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-SEPARATOR-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-SEPARATOR-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-STATELAYER-HOVERED: rgba(0, 0, 0, .02);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSED: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSEDSTRENGTHENED: rgba(255, 255, 255, .2);--weui-YELLOW-100: #CC9C00;--weui-YELLOW-120: #A37C00;--weui-YELLOW-170: #3D2F00;--weui-YELLOW-80: #D6AF33;--weui-YELLOW-90: #D1A519;--weui-YELLOW-BG-100: #BF9100;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #AB8200;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #866500;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #C59C1A;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #C87D2F;--weui-YELLOW: #CC9C00;--weui-GREEN: #74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: 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